Sandy Alcantara, Where's the Ceiling?

Of all the pitchers in Major League Baseball, there may not be one that is more electric than Sandy Alcantara. It’s no secret Alcantara has one of the best sinkers in the league. He mixes that in with a four-seam fastball, a changeup, and a slider. Where he goes from here is up in the air, but let’s look at how Alcantara got to this point and give a prediction on where he’ll end up.

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Sandy Alcantara signed with the St. Louis Cardinals, in July of 2013. He spent his first professional season in the Dominican Summer League, before making his American debut in 2015 with the Gulf Coast Cardinals. He spent the 2016 season with the Peoria Chiefs and the Palm Beach Cardinals.

The beginning of the 2017 season signaled the end of his time in A-ball as he was promoted to the Double-A, Springfield Cardinals. A surprise call-up from the Cardinals in 2017, saw him get 8.1 innings pitched, before being sent to the Arizona Fall League.

In December of 2017, the Cardinals traded Alcantara, along with Zac Gallen, Daniel Castano and Magneuris Sierra for the power hitting, Marcell Ozuna.

Alcantara’s 2018 season wasn’t of much note. He only threw 34 innings in that season, so we won’t go too far in depth on that season. In the small sample size though, his strikeout percentage was a tad bit above league average at 20.5%. His walk percentage was atrocious, signaling the control concerns he had during his time in the minors. But like I said before, that’s all we’re going to look at about that season.

2019 was the first season in which Alcantara saw a meaningful number of innings. In 2019, he threw 197.1 innings and pitched to a 3.44 ERA. His expected ERA (xERA) was significantly higher, signaling he was having luck go his way.

He also had a borderline, terrible FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). FIP shows a pitcher’s ERA if they had a league average defense behind him. Alcantara’s FIP in 2019 was 4.60, well below league average. Showing he benefited from a good Marlins’ defense.

The numbers show luck went Sandy Alcantara’s way in 2019. Luck, as everyone knows is well out your own hands. What he could control in 2019, Alcantara did. He lowered his BB/9 nearly 2.5 percentage points all the way down to a 3.69. For a pitcher who had walk concerns since he became a professional, this was a step in the right direction. His strikeout numbers fell, but not to a rate that would sound an alarm.

Like 2018, the 2020 season was essentially a wash, and it wasn’t the fault of Alcantara. A few takeaways from that season were his K/9 rising 1.5 points and his BB/9 improving again. His FIP also improved, suggesting his above average luck was flattening out. Finally, his WHIP again fell, but with such a small sample size it’s hard to take anything away.

And finally, to where we are now, the 2021 season. Sandy Alcantara has taken all the necessary steps to get to the next level as a starting pitcher. While WAR is no longer the most popular measurement tool, it’s a great example here of how much of an improvement he’s made. The WAR has swelled from 2.3 in thee 2019 season, all the way to 4.2 in 2021.

His K/9 have now moved into above average to great territory at 8.75. Alcantara’s BB/9 fell over another percentage point, dropping to a 2.20. Like the K/9, his BB/9 have now reached above average to great territory.

His FIP has come all the way down to a 3.37. Higher than Aaron Nola, Shohei Ohtani, and Cy-Young candidate, Robbie Ray. He’s currently second in the league in innings pitched, taking away the excuse that he’s lacking in innings pitched.

Safe to say, 2021 has been Alcantara’s breakout season. He is posting the best numbers of his career in just about every stat. Most importantly he’s going deeper into games, that is in turn building up his confidence. If he’s able to build on this, the sky is the limit for Alcantara.

Of all the starting pitchers in the MLB, Sandy Alcantara’s average velocity on his fastball and sinker trails only that of Gerrit Cole. Pretty good company to be associated with. Cole and Alcantara are also walking people at a very similar clip. He’s not striking out as many hitters as Cole, but he is giving up less HR/9. Yes, that can be associated with playing in Miami vs. New York but is still of note.

Am I saying Sandy Alcantara is Gerrit Cole? Absolutely not. Cole is in a company of his own. What I am saying is that Alcantara’s stuff, rivals that of only one of the best pitchers in baseball. A big step in the next phase of his career is going to be upping his strikeout numbers.

The changeup is going to be the key to that. At times throughout the season, Alcantara’s been criticized for throwing too hard of a changeup and keeping the hitters off balance. Whether that’s true or not, the jury is still out.

With that said, let’s make a call. Corbin Burnes. Alcantara and Burnes have some of the most similar arsenals in all of baseball. They both throw hard four-seam fastballs, sinkers, and changeups, with a slider to keep hitters off balance. Burns has a cutter that Alcantara doesn’t have but other than that the arsenals are nearly identical.

Will Sandy Alcantara be comparable to Corbin Burnes over the next couple of seasons? Time is the only thing that will tell. What is clear is that Alcantara is in a very similar situation as Burnes was before his breakout. Next season will be massive for Alcantara’s future. Could a Cy Young be in his future? Let’s comeback to this in 2022.